Embedded Files
Dear Data,
Dear Data,
There's so much talk about marijuana, its components, and their legal status.
While a few states have decriminalized weed, it remains illegal on the federal level.
One of the arguments against leaving people to make their own decisions is that marijuana could be a gateway drug.
Can you confirm?
Cheers,
-- Sophie
Dear Sophie,
Dear Sophie,
Gateway drug theory is a catchphase. When people say X is a gateway drug if there's data to suggest a trend in subsequent use of drugs Y or Z.
If you are interested to learn about marijuana in a bit more depth, NIH has a wonderful section on it. Their stance is that further research is needed, but for now, it is considered likely to precede use and addiction in adult population. They cite 2004 studies on exposing adolescent rodents to cannabioids and their subsequent tolerance to morphine, cocaine, and amphetamine.
To answer your question, I looked into the dataset published by FiveThirtyEight. It covers 13 drugs and 17 age groups. You can find my code in this GitHub repo.
I have to somewhat agree with NIH, there's a correlation between using marijuana and "softer" drug use later down the life. The good news is that it's not obvious that it's a gateway to harder drugs like crack or heroin. Suprisingly, it appears that marijuana might have its own gateway drug! Read on, no spoilers.
On to the fun stuff!
Sample sizes are not uniform across age groups. Not a big deal, but we did weigh all of our calculations to compensate. Ona a side note, participation props, anyone?
The fact that mean drug use peaks around 21 raises questions about the logic and consequences behind legal age.
Here are a few quick trends that data showed:
- The use of drugs peaks at age 21.
- Frequency of alcohol use stays relatively constant after the age of 21.
- Inhalant use decreases with age almost linearly.
- Cocaine experiences a drastic popularity hike after the age 30.
- Heroine use spikes at the ages of 20 and 22. The causality is unknown, but my morbid thoughts suggest legal age of 21 has something to do with it.
- On a happier note, 12- and 50-year olds are pretty fond of hallucinogens!
- 12- and 13-year olds have a very high frequency of tranquilizer use.
- But 65+ year olds use a LOT of stimulants!
Just to give you an idea what does marijuana use looks like when plotted against harder drugs like crack, heroin, oxycontin, and sedatives.
Light green is marijuana and dark green are harder drugs.
It looks like there's little correlation. I count this as relatively good news.
Let's move on to more interesting and concrete processes and conclusions.
My hypothesis is that if marijuana is indeed a gateway drug, then using it earlier in life correlates with using other drugs later in life. Visually, it should look like a spike in marijuana use followed by a spike in other drug use when plotted on the same figure. Like a camel.
Alcohol
Alcohol
Marijuana, here in light green, clearly precedes alcohol, here in dark green and purple.
Stimulants
Stimulants
Marijuana, here in light green, still precedes a spike in stimulant use, albeit less pronouncedly.
Pain relievers
Pain relievers
A similar trend in pain reliever vs marijuana use. A peculiar dip in pain reliever at 21 mirrors a dip in marijuana at age 19.
One of the more peculiar findings was that hallucinogen use frequency spikes exactly at the time when marijuana use dips around the age 19.
Again, there's no evidence of causality, but it's still fun to speculate.
Do liberal arts colleges have a hand in this trend, perhaps? Once you have to write a first-person essay as Satan from Dante's Inferno, who knows what kind of help you might want to conjure up.
Don't do drugs, it's not a good idea regardless of your courseload.
~Drum roll, please!~
~Drum roll, please!~
Marijuana's own gateway drug -
Marijuana's own gateway drug -
Inhalants!
While the frequency is much lower, the trend is still there.
In pink, inhalant use, in green, marijuana.
Even the relative dip in use is visible on the graph around the age 15. Inhalant use is predominantly seen in younger age groups possibly due to availability, both of inhalants as a household item, and of a wider variety of substances an adult would have access to.
In conclusion, don't do drugs.
Marijuana appears to be a gateway drug for "lighter" substances, and not a gateway drug for "harder" ones. It also has its own gateway drug - inhalants. These are substances commonly available in any household - glue, paint, gasoline. Gasoline?! Why, humans, why.
As always, have fun with the world!
Love,
-- Data
Google Sites
Report abuse